Mortgage stress varies significantly across Australia, driven by differences in property prices, household incomes, employment patterns, and local economic conditions. Here's the state-by-state picture as of March 2026.
Following the RBA's back-to-back rate hikes to 4.10%, approximately 1.319 million Australian mortgage holders (26.6%) are at risk of mortgage stress. Victoria and Tasmania lead the nation in stress rates, while the ACT and WA have the lowest — largely due to higher household incomes.
| State | Stress Rate | Avg Mortgage | Median Income | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAS | 29.5% | $420,000 | $73,000 | Lowest incomes nationally |
| VIC | 29.1% | $628,000 | $89,000 | Construction slowdown, outer suburb overextension |
| QLD | 28.3% | $545,000 | $85,000 | Pandemic migration boom, fixed-rate cliff |
| SA | 27.8% | $445,000 | $79,000 | Lower incomes, Adelaide price growth |
| NT | 26.2% | $390,000 | $88,000 | High cost of living, small market |
| NSW | 25.8% | $752,000 | $98,000 | Large loans offset by high incomes |
| WA | 25.5% | $480,000 | $102,000 | Mining incomes buffer rate rises |
| ACT | 21.4% | $590,000 | $115,000 | Highest incomes, public sector stability |
The single biggest factor in mortgage stress isn't property prices — it's the ratio of mortgage repayments to household income. This is why Tasmania (lowest average mortgages) has higher stress than NSW (highest average mortgages): Tasmanian incomes are significantly lower.
Employment mix matters too. States with large public sector workforces (ACT) or mining sectors (WA) have more stable, higher incomes that buffer against rate rises. States with larger hospitality, retail, and gig economy workforces see stress earlier.
For detailed information including local financial counselling services and state government programs:
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